A comparison of case-control and family-based association methods: the example of sickle-cell and malaria.

There has been much debate about the relative merits of population- and family-based strategies for testing genetic association, yet there is little empirical data that directly compare the two approaches. Here we compare case-control and transmission/disequilibrium test (TDT) study designs using a well-established genetic association, the protective effect of the sickle-cell trait against severe malaria. We find that the two methods give similar estimates of the level of protection (case-control odds ratio = 0.10, 95% confidence interval 0.03-0.23; family-based estimate of the odds ratio = 0.11, 95% confidence interval 0.04-0.25) and similar statistical significance of the result (case-control: chi2= 41.26, p= 10(-10), TDT: chi2= 39.06, p= 10(-10)) when 315 TDT cases are compared to 583 controls. We propose a family plus population control study design, which allows both case-control and TDT analysis of the cases. This combination is robust against the respective weaknesses of the case-control and TDT study designs, namely population structure and segregation distortion. The combined study design is especially cost-effective when cases are difficult to ascertain and, when the case-control and TDT results agree, offers greater confidence in the result.

Haplotypic relationship between SNP and microsatellite markers at the NOS2A locus in two populations.

The density of genetic markers required for successful association mapping of complex diseases depends on linkage disequilibrium (LD) between non-functional markers and functional variants. The haplotypic relationship between stable markers and potentially unstable but highly informative markers (e.g. microsatellites) indicates that LD might be maintained over considerable genetic distance in non-African populations, supporting the use of such 'mixed marker haplotypes' in LD-based mapping, and allowing inferences to be drawn about human origins. We investigated sequence variation in the proximal 2.6 kb of the inducible nitric oxide synthase (NOS2A) promoter and the relationship between SNP haplotypes and a pentanucleotide microsatellite (the 'NOS2A(-2.6) microsatellite') in Gambians and UK Caucasians. UK Caucasians exhibited a subset of sequence diversity observed in Gambians, sharing four of 11 SNPs and a similar haplotypic structure. Five SNPs were found in the sequence of interspersed repetitive DNA elements. In both populations, there was dramatic loss of LD between SNP haplotypes and microsatellite alleles across a very short physical distance, suggesting a high intrinsic mutation rate of the NOS2A(-2.6) microsatellite, the SNP haplotypes are relatively ancient, or that this was a region of frequent recombination. Understanding locus- and population-specific LD is essential when designing and interpreting genetic association studies.

CD40L association with protection from severe malaria.

CD40 ligand (CD40L), a glycoprotein involved in B cell proliferation, antigen presenting cell activation, and Ig class switching, is important in the immune response to infection. Rare coding mutations in CD40L can lead to life-threatening immunodeficiency but the potential for common variants to alter disease susceptibility remains to be explored. To identify polymorphisms in CD40L, we sequenced 2.3 kb of the 5' flanking region and the first exon of the gene in DNA samples from 36 Gambian females and one chimpanzee. Diversity was lower than the average reported for other areas of the X chromosome, and only two polymorphisms were identified. The polymorphisms were genotyped in DNA samples from 957 Gambian individuals, cases and controls from a study of severe malaria. A significant reduction in risk for severe malaria (OR = 0.52, P = 0.002) was associated with males hemizygous for the CD40L-726C. Analysis by transmission disequilibrium test of 371 cases, for whom DNA from both parents was also available, confirmed the result was not due to stratification (P = 0.04). A similar but non-significant trend was found in females. This preliminary association of a common variant in CD40L with a malaria resistance phenotype encourages further genetic characterization of the role of CD40L in infectious disease.

Nucleotide diversity of the TNF gene region in an African village.

The wide variety of disease associations reported at the TNF locus raises the question of how much variation exists within a single population. To address this question, we sequenced the entire TNF gene in 72 chromosomes from healthy residents of a village in The Gambia, West Africa. We found 12 polymorphisms in 4393 nucleotides, of which five have not been previously described, giving an estimated nucleotide diversity (theta) of 5.6 x 10(-4). A significantly higher frequency of polymorphisms was found in the promoter region than in the coding region (8/1256 vs 0/882 nucleotides, P = 0.02). All polymorphisms with the exception of one rare allele were found to be present in Malawi, which is both geographically and genetically distant from The Gambia. Genotyping of 424 Gambian and 121 Malawian adults showed a significant frequency difference between the two populations for eight of the 12 polymorphisms, but the average fixation index across the variable sites was relatively low (F(ST) = 0.007). We conclude that, at the TNF locus, the nucleotide diversity found within a single African village is similar to the global value for human autosomal genes sampled across different continents.

Clinical signs of hypoxaemia in children with acute lower respiratory infection: indicators of oxygen therapy.

Hypoxaemia is a common complication of acute lower respiratory tract infections in children. In most developing countries, where the majority of deaths from pneumonia occur, facilities for early detection of hypoxaemia are lacking and oxygen is in short supply. This review examines the usefulness of different clinical signs and symptoms in the prediction of hypoxaemia associated with acute respiratory infections in children. Several respiratory signs were found to be associated with hypoxaemia. These include very fast breathing (with a respiratory rate of more than 60 or 70 breaths per minute), cyanosis, grunting, nasal flaring, chest retractions, head nodding and auscultatory signs, as well as signs of general depression of the child, such as inability to feed or lethargy. The sensitivity and specificity of these signs, as described in the reviewed studies, is presented, and combination rules are discussed. Through appropriate combination of several physical signs, which can be used by peripheral health workers and be taught to mothers, it is possible to predict hypoxaemia in children with acute respiratory tract infections with reasonable accuracy.

Unusual haplotypic structure of IL8, a susceptibility locus for a common respiratory virus.

Interleukin-8 (IL8) is believed to play a role in the pathogenesis of bronchiolitis, a common viral disease of infancy, and a recent U.K. family study identified an association between this disease and the IL8-251A allele. In the present study we report data, from a different set of families, which replicate this finding; combined analysis of 194 nuclear families through use of the transmission/disequilibrium test gives P = .001. To explore the underlying genetic cause, we identified nine single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a 7.6-kb segment spanning the IL8 gene and its promoter region and used six of these SNPs to define the haplotypic structure of the IL8 locus. The IL8-251A allele resides on two haplotypes, only one of which is associated with disease, suggesting that this may not be the functional allele. Europeans show an unusual haplotype genealogy that is dominated by two common haplotypes differing at multiple sites, whereas Africans have much greater haplotypic diversity. These marked haplotype-frequency differences give an F(ST) of.25, and, in the European sample, both Tajima's D statistic (D = 2.58, P = .007) and the Hudson/Kreitman/Aguade test (chi(2) = 4.9, P = .03) reject neutral equilibrium, suggesting that selective pressure may have acted on this locus.

Vitamin A status of pre-school children in Ibadan (South West Nigeria), risk factors and comparison of methods of diagnosis.

Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) and protein energy malnutrition (PEM), sharing common aetiological factors, are important public health problems in many developing, countries. A cross-sectional survey of the vitamin A status of 128 well nourished and 230 malnourished pre-school children was carried out in order to define factors associated with increased risks of VAD and also to determine the predictive values of CIC-T in identifying serum retinol of < 10 microg/dl in these children. The proportional morbidity rates of VAD defined by serum retinol concentrations (7.3%) and CIC-T (6.2%) was similar (p>0.05), and children aged < 3 years accounted for 70% of VAD cases. VAD occurred in 6.3% and 7.8% of well-nourished and malnourished children respectively. The risk of VAD was increased following measles, history of persistent diarrhoea and wasting. The predictive value of CIC-T is highly dependent on CIC-T such that abnormal and normal smears classification appears to be very robust and predictive of serum retinol of < 10 microg/dl, with sensitivity of 83.3% (95%CI: 61.8-94.5), and specificity of 73.3% (95%CI: 68.3-78.5). Judging by the proportional morbidity rate in this study, VAD appears to be a significant public health problem in both malnourished and well-nourished Nigerian children, especially in children < 3 years of age. The history of measles and persistent diarrhoea appear to increase the risk of VAD. The simplicity, sensitivity and specificity of CIC-T suggest that this procedure is a good screening tool for epidemiological survey of vitamin A status.

Effect of fever on the serum antibody response of Gambian children to Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Acute malaria is a major pediatric problem in developing countries and it is known to be immunosuppressive. METHODS: The serum antibody response to Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) conjugate vaccine was investigated in children ages 12 to 30 months with fever associated with malaria, fever associated with other causes or no fever. Groups of 57 children with malaria, 57 children with fever without malaria and 60 healthy children were bled and vaccinated with a single dose of H. influenzae type b capsular polysaccharide-tetanus protein conjugate vaccine. Of these 137 were bled again 1 to 2 months after vaccination. RESULTS: The median antibody titers at baseline were low and similar in the three groups; 77, 65 and 57% of children in the malaria, febrile and healthy groups, respectively, had prevaccination titers of anti-polyribosylribitol phosphate antibodies below 0.15 microg/ml. The median antibody titers after vaccination were 6.3, 7.5 and 23 microg/ml in the malaria, febrile and healthy groups, respectively (P < 0.001, healthy group vs. the two febrile groups). All the healthy children had protective titers (>0.15 microg/ml) after vaccination, but 11% of the children with malaria and 4% of the other febrile children did not have protective titers. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-polyribosylribitol phosphate titers after Hib vaccination were lower in children with malaria or other febrile illnesses at the time of vaccination than in controls. Fever associated with malaria or other acute illnesses is associated with a diminished response to Hib conjugate vaccine. These findings raise questions about the vaccination of febrile children and indicate the need for further studies in this area.

Haemophilus influenzae type b meningitis in The Gambia after introduction of a conjugate vaccine.

After the introduction of a Haemophilus Influenzae type b (Hib) conjugate vaccine into The Gambia, the annual incidence of Hib meningitis has fallen from more than 200 per 100,000 before vaccination to 21 per 100,000 during the past 12 months.

PIP: This paper reports on the impact of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) conjugate vaccine on the incidence of Hib meningitis in Gambia. The incidence of Hib meningitis among infants younger than 12 months of age in Gambia is greater, and the children affected are younger, compared to children in more developed countries. Between March 1993 and December 1995, children who were administered diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccination were randomly assigned a course of Hib conjugate vaccine mixed with DTP or DTP only. In Gambia, DTP vaccinations are recommended at 2, 3, and 4 months of age. The coverage of these vaccinations has been over 85% since 1990. Hib disease has not disappeared from Gambia in the last 2 years since the national immunization program was introduced. However, the incidence rate has declined rapidly, and a longer period of vaccination may be needed to achieve a sufficient herd effect to protect unimmunized children.

Conjunctival impression cytology with transfer in the assessment of vitamin A status in Nigerian children.

OBJECTIVE: To determine vitamin A status by conjunctival impression cytology with transfer (CIC-T) and assess its ability to predict low and deficient serum retinol concentrations. STUDY DESIGN: CIC-T was performed on 128 healthy, well-nourished and 230 malnourished children aged under 6 years by a 3-5-second application of cellulose acetate paper to each bulbar conjunctiva followed by transfer of the adhered cells onto glass slides. The slides were stained with Alcian green 2GX, and smears were classified as normal, borderline normal, borderline abnormal and deficient. Corresponding serum retinol levels were determined in each subject. RESULTS: The results showed that CIC-T is a simple procedure with a failure rate of 7.3% caused by tearing and agitation. The power of CIC-T to predict vitamin A status varied with both the CIC-T smear classification used and serum retinol concentration threshold. CIC-T smear classification as abnormal and normal appears to be the most robust and predictive of serum retinol, < 10 and > 10 < 20 micrograms/dL, respectively. CONCLUSION: The simplicity, sensitivity and specificity of CIC-T suggest that this procedure is a good screening tool for epidemiologic survey of vitamin A status.

Clinical predictors of hypoxaemia in Gambian children with acute lower respiratory tract infection: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical correlates and outcome of hypoxaemia in children admitted to hospital with an acute lower respiratory tract infection. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Paediatric wards of the Royal Victoria Hospital and the hospital of the Medical Research Council's hospital in Banjul, the Gambia. SUBJECTS: 1072 of 42 848 children, aged 2 to 33 months, who were enrolled in a randomised trial of a Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine in the western region of the Gambia, and who were admitted with an acute lower respiratory tract infection to two of three hospitals. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of hypoxaemia, defined as an arterial oxygen saturation <90% recorded by pulse oximetry, and the relation between hypoxaemia and aetiological agents. RESULTS: 1072 children aged 2-33 months were enrolled. Sixty three (5.9%) had an arterial oxygen saturation <90%. A logistic regression model showed that cyanosis, a rapid respiratory rate, grunting, head nodding, an absence of a history of fever, and no spontaneous movement during examination were the best independent predictors of hypoxaemia. The presence of an inability to cry, head nodding, or a respiratory rate >/= 90 breaths/min formed the best predictors of hypoxaemia (sensitivity 70%, specificity 79%). Hypoxaemic children were five times more likely to die than non-hypoxaemic children. The presence of malaria parasitaemia had no effect on the prevalence of hypoxaemia or on its association with respiratory rate. CONCLUSION: In children with an acute lower respiratory tract infection, simple physical signs that require minimal expertise to recognise can be used to determine oxygen therapy and to aid in screening for referral. The association between hypoxaemia and death highlights the need for early recognition of the condition and the potential benefit of treatment.

PIP: Acute lower respiratory tract (ALRT) infections cause considerable child morbidity and mortality in developing countries. Oxygen therapy can improve the outcome of children with moderate or severe ALRT infections and, in those with hypoxemia, the severity of hypoxia correlates with outcome. However, since oxygen is not always available in resource-poor countries, rational guidelines must be followed for the use of oxygen and the referral of patients to specialist hospitals. Findings are presented from a prospective cohort study conducted to determine which clinical signs predict hypoxemia and the outcome of hypoxemia among children admitted to hospital with ALRT infection. Findings are based upon the study of 1072 of 42,848 children aged 2-33 months who were enrolled in a randomized trial of a Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine in western Gambia, and who were admitted with an ALRT infection to 2 of 3 hospitals. 63 (5.9%) had an arterial oxygen saturation level of less than 90%. Logistic regression found cyanosis, a rapid respiratory rate, grunting, head nodding, absence of a history of fever, and no spontaneous movement during examination were significantly associated with hypoxemia. When cyanosis may not be correctly assessed, the inability to cry, head nodding, and a respiratory rate of at least 90 breaths/minute can be useful ways of predicting hypoxemia. Hypoxemic children were 5 times more likely to die than were nonhypoxemic children. The presence of malaria parasitemia had no effect upon the prevalence of hypoxemia or upon its association with respiratory rate.

A review of the spectrum of clinical ocular fundus findings in P. falciparum malaria in African children with a proposed classification and grading system.

Ocular fundus pathology in Plasmodium falciparum malaria is common and has prognostic significance. We have made a collaborative effort to document the ocular features in several populations. Based on examination of 735 patients in Malawi, Kenya and The Gambia by direct and indirect ophthalmoscopy with dilated pupils, we have determined that the 5 distinct clinical features (in order of frequency) include retinal whitening, haemorrhages, unique vessel abnormalities, papilloedema, and cotton wool spots. Photographs and descriptions of these are presented, along with a proposed grading scheme.

A polymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of Haemophilus influenzae type b disease in children and its evaluation during a vaccine trial.

BACKGROUND: Determination of the etiology of pneumonia in young children is difficult because blood culture, the usual method of diagnosis, is positive in only a small proportion of cases. For this reason vaccine trials that include bacterial pneumonia as an endpoint must be large. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether a diagnostic test based on a polymerase chain reaction could be used as an alternative to conventional blood culture for diagnosis of invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infections in young children investigated during the course of a large vaccine trial. METHODS: DNA was extracted from blood culture supernatants and probed for the presence of Hib DNA with a PCR assay with primers derived from the cap gene locus of Hib. Results of the PCR assay were compared with those obtained by conventional culture techniques. RESULTS: Blood cultures were obtained from 1544 children with suspected pneumonia, meningitis or septicemia and from 31 healthy control children who were contacts of cases. Blood culture supernatants were tested for Hib DNA in the PCR test. The sensitivity and specificity of a positive PCR test in blood culture supernatant as against culture of Hib from any normally sterile site were 100 and 99%, respectively. Eleven children had positive Hib PCR tests on blood culture supernatants but were negative by culture. In one of these cases Hib was isolated from a lung aspirate and in two other patients H. influenzae strains other than Hib were obtained from the cerebrospinal fluid. Eight of these 11 children were in the control group. When the results of the PCR assay were used to determine vaccine efficacy, a value of 86% was obtained compared with a figure of 95% obtained when conventional culture techniques were used. CONCLUSIONS: An Hib PCR assay on blood culture supernatants proved to be sensitive and specific for the diagnosis of Hib disease in children. The distribution of PCR-positive, culture-negative cases between Hib-vaccinated and control groups paralleled that of culture-positive cases, suggesting that most of these children had been infected with Hib. A trial of a highly efficacious vaccine provides a novel way for evaluating new diagnostic tests for which there is no standard diagnostic test of 100% reliability.

The clinical spectrum of respiratory syncytial virus disease in The Gambia.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a well-recognized cause of lower respiratory tract infections in early childhood in industrialized countries, but less is known about RSV infection in developing countries. METHODS: Four outbreaks of RSV infection that occurred between 1993 and 1996 in The Gambia, West Africa, were studied. RSV was sought by immunofluorescent staining of nasopharyngeal aspirate samples among young children who presented with respiratory infections at three hospitals in the Western Region of the country. RESULTS: Five hundred seventy-four children with RSV infection were identified. The median ages of children seen in 1993 through 1996 were 3, 7, 8 and 5 months, respectively. Sixty-two percent of children <6 months old were boys. Thirteen children (2.4%) had conditions considered to increase the risk of severe RSV infection. On physical examination crepitations were heard in 80% of the children admitted to hospital, whereas wheezes were heard in only 39%. Eighty (16%) children received oxygen because of hypoxemia. Nine of 255 blood cultures (3.5%) were positive: 4 Streptococcus pneumoniae; 2 Haemophilus influenzae type b; 2 Staphylococcus aureus; and 1 Enterobacter agglomerans. Thirteen children died (2.4%). During the 4 study years 90, 25, 75 and 95% of isolates typed were RSV Subgroup A, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: RSV is a significant cause of lower respiratory tract infection in young children in The Gambia, causing epidemics of bronchiolitis. It poses a significant burden on the health system, especially through the demand for supplementary oxygen. The clinical spectrum of RSV disease in The Gambia is similar to that seen in developed countries; concomitant bacterial infections are uncommon.

PIP: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a well-recognized cause of lower respiratory tract infections during early childhood in industrialized countries. The study of 4 RSV infection outbreaks which occurred during 1993-96 in The Gambia led to the identification of RSV infection in 574 children through the immunofluorescent staining of nasopharyngeal aspirate samples among children of median age 3-8 months who presented with respiratory infections at 3 hospitals in the Western region of the country. 13 children had conditions thought to increase the risk of severe RSV infection, with crepitations heard during physical examinations in 80% of children admitted to the hospital and wheezes heard in 39%. 80 children were given oxygen because of hypoxemia. 9 of 255 blood cultures were positive for the following pathogens: 4 Streptococcus pneumoniae, 2 Haemophilus influenzae type b, 2 Staphylococcus aureus, and 1 Enterobacter agglomerans. 13 children died. 90% of isolates typed during year 1 were RSV subgroup A, 25% in the second year of study, 75% in year 3, and 95% in year 4. These findings demonstrate that RSV is a significant cause of lower respiratory tract infection in young children in The Gambia, causing epidemics of bronchiolitis. It is most likely cost-effective to prevent RSV infection through vaccination.

Epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease in the Western Region, The Gambia.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in young children in the developing world. The recent development of pneumococcal polysaccharide/protein conjugate vaccines may make possible prevention of this infection. However, little is known about the epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease in children in the developing world. OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence and epidemiologic features of invasive pneumococcal disease in children resident in a semiurban area of The Gambia. METHOD: The study was part of a large trial of an Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine that recruited 42 848 children at the age of 2 months during the period March, 1993, to October, 1995. Follow-up of study children continued until December 31, 1995; therefore the first children to enter the trial were followed for 2.5 years and the last for just a few months. During the period of surveillance, 2256 children were investigated for possible invasive pneumococcal disease when they presented to a hospital or health center. RESULTS: We detected 110 cases of pneumococcal disease. Pneumonia was the most common form of invasive pneumococcal disease observed (75.5% of patients). The incidence of pneumococcal disease was 224 [95% confidence interval (CI) 171, 277] per 100,000 child years among children ages 2 to 11 months, 139 (95% CI 93, 184) per 100,000 among children ages 12 to 23 months and 82 (95% CI 21, 143) per 100,000 among children ages 24 to 35 months. Pneumococci of serogroups 14, 6, 5, 23, 19, 46 and 2 were isolated most frequently. Susceptibility to pneumococcal disease was not increased significantly among Haemophilus influenzae type b-vaccinated children. CONCLUSIONS: The pneumococcus is a major cause of bacterial infection in The Gambia. A proposed nine-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine for developing countries containing conjugates of serogroups 1, 4, 5, 6, 9, 14, 18, 19 and 23 would cover 74% of cases of invasive pneumococcal disease in children resident in the Western Region of The Gambia.

Randomised trial of Haemophilus influenzae type-b tetanus protein conjugate vaccine [corrected] for prevention of pneumonia and meningitis in Gambian infants.

BACKGROUND: In developing countries, pneumonia and meningitis due to Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) are common in children under age 12 months and the mortality from meningitis is high. Protein-polysaccharide conjugate vaccines have brought Hib disease under control in industrialised countries. We did a double-blind randomised trial in The Gambia to assess the efficacy of a Hib conjugate vaccine for the prevention of meningitis, pneumonia, and other invasive diseases due to Hib. METHODS: Between March, 1993, and October, 1995, 42,848 infants were randomly allocated the conjugate vaccine Hib polysaccharide tetanus protein (PRP-T) mixed with diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP), or DTP alone at age 2 months, 3 months, and 4 months. Children who presented with signs of invasive Hib were investigated by blood culture and, where appropriate, by lumbar puncture, chest radiograph, or percutaneous lung aspirate. Children were followed up for between 5 and 36 months. FINDINGS: The median ages at which children received the study vaccine were 11 weeks, 18 weeks, and 24 weeks. 83% of children enrolled received all three doses of vaccine. 17 cases of culture-positive Hib pneumonia, 28 of Hib meningitis, and five of other forms of invasive Hib disease were detected amongst the study children. The efficacy of the vaccine for the prevention of all invasive disease after three doses was 95% (PRP-T vaccinees 1, controls 19 [95% CI 67-100]), for the prevention of Hib pneumonia after two or three doses, 100% (vaccinees 0, controls 10 [55-100]), and for the prevention of radiologically defined pneumonia at any time after enrollment, 21.1% (PRP-T vaccinees 198, controls 251 [4.6-34.9]). INTERPRETATION: PRP-T conjugate Hib vaccine prevented most cases of meningitis and pneumonia due to Hib in Gambian infants. The reduction in the overall incidence of radiologically defined pneumonia in PRP-T vaccinees suggests that about 20% of episodes of pneumonia in young Gambian children are due to Hib. The introduction of Hib vaccines into developing countries should substantially reduce childhood mortality due to pneumonia and meningitis.

Predictors of hypoxaemia in hospital admissions with acute lower respiratory tract infection in a developing country.

Since oxygen has to be given to most children in developing countries on the basis of clinical signs without performing blood gas analyses, possible clinical predictors of hypoxaemia were studied. Sixty nine children between the ages of 2 months and 5 years admitted to hospital with acute lower respiratory tract infection and an oxygen saturation (Sao2) < 90% were compared with 67 children matched for age and diagnosis from the same referral hospital with an Sao2 of 90% or above (control group 1), and 44 unreferred children admitted to a secondary care hospital with acute lower respiratory infection (control group 2). Using multiple logistic regression analysis, sleepiness, arousal, quality of cry, cyanosis, head nodding, decreased air entry, nasal flaring, and upper arm circumference were found to be independent predictors of hypoxaemia on comparison of the cases with control group 1. Using a simple model of cyanosis or head nodding or not crying, the sensitivity to predict hypoxaemia was 59%, and the specificity 94% and 93% compared to control groups 1 and 2, respectively; 80% of the children with an Sao2 < 80% were identified by the combination of these signs. Over half of the children with hypoxaemia could be identified with a combination of three signs: extreme respiratory distress, cyanosis, and severely compromised general status. Further prospective validation of this model with other datasets is warranted. No other signs improved the sensitivity without compromising specificity. If a higher sensitivity is required, pulse oximetry has to be used.

Detection of Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae DNA in blood culture by a single PCR assay.

A multiplex PCR assay was developed to screen blood cultures from children in The Gambia with suspected pneumonia for the simultaneous detection of Haemophilus influenzae type b and Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates. Analysis of 295 blood cultures showed that PCR detected the organisms in all samples positive by culture in two samples infected with H. influenzae type b and four samples infected with S. pneumoniae that were culture negative, indicating that this method is sensitive for detecting these organisms in blood cultures.